IMPROVED support for Julia Gillard and Labor among women, older people and voters in South Australia and Western Australia has boosted the government at the end of the year - but it still faces an election-losing wipeout in Queensland and NSW.
Labor remains most vulnerable in the states where the most seats are to be won or lost.
The latest Newspoll analysis reveals it would lose up to 17 seats - including a raft of ministers - in Queensland, NSW and Victoria based on swings against the government in each state.
In Queensland, Labor would lose six seats, in NSW eight Labor seats could fall and in Victoria three marginal seats would go based on statewide swings since the election. According to a Newspoll analysis of surveys conducted exclusively for The Australian, the Prime Minister regained lost ground among female voters and in her home state of Victoria, with Labor recovering slippages in WA and South Australia in the last quarter of the year.
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After Labor's lift in the October-December period, it now has a primary vote over 30 per cent in Victoria and South Australia and is equal to the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis in those two states. The politically action-packed last three months of the year resulted in Labor's support rising from record lows in the June-September quarter on the back of improvements in Victoria and South Australia.
Both states are seen as having a special connection with Ms Gillard, the Prime Minister having grown up in Adelaide before making Victoria her home.
Despite the improvement in the past three months, Labor's primary vote is down across the board from the beginning of the year and down from between two to 10 percentage points since the August election last year.
Labor's two-party-preferred support has also suffered because slight falls for the Greens, particularly in South Australia, mean a reduced preference flow to Labor.
In NSW, where Labor holds 26 seats, the ALP primary vote is down 10 points to 28 per cent since the election. In Queensland, where there are eight Labor MPs, the primary vote is down four points to 29 per cent since the election. Despite a three-point rise to 35 per cent in Victoria in the last quarter, Labor's primary vote is still down seven points on its election vote in 2010. Five-point rises in Western and South Australia in Labor's primary vote - to 29 per cent and 33 per cent respectively in the December quarter - are still down on the election.
On a two-party-preferred basis, using preference flows at the last election, the Coalition is ahead or equal to the government in every state and in front on primary support among every demographic and regional group.
The Coalition leads Labor on a two-party preferred basis in Queensland 59 per cent to 41 per cent and in NSW and Western Australia 57 per cent to 43 per cent. In Victoria and South Australia, after rises in the ALP's primary vote in the past three months, the government is even with the Coalition on 50 per cent after the calculation of preferences.
Personal support for Ms Gillard rose from record lows in most states and among various groups of voters, but her satisfaction remained below 30 per cent in Queensland and among male voters.
After a fall among women voters in the September quarter, Ms Gillard's support rose four points to 34 per cent, her second-lowest rating among women, and increased five points in Western Australia.
But in Queensland satisfaction with the job the Prime Minister is doing was unchanged on 25 per cent, and with male voters went from 27 per cent to 29 per cent.
On the question of who would make the better prime minister, Ms Gillard widened her lead over Tony Abbott in Victoria and South Australia and narrowed the Opposition Leader's preference in NSW to just one point, 39 per cent to 40 per cent.
Mr Abbott's biggest leads over Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister are in Queensland, 42 per cent to 32 per cent, and among male voters, 53 per cent to 43 per cent.
Ms Gillard improved her lead over Mr Abbott among women. After going to within two points of the Prime Minister in the September quarter, the Liberal leader now trails her 33 per cent to 42 per cent.
After reaching record levels of support in Victoria and South Australia, the Greens have dropped back to the levels of primary support at the election last year or below.
In NSW, where ALP support has dropped, the Greens have kept 13 per cent primary support in the last half of this year, which is two percentage points up since the August election.
In Victoria, Greens' support has dropped back to 2010 election levels after hitting highs of 17 per cent and 16 per cent in the first half of this year.
In South Australia, there has been a similar movement in Greens' support, dropping back to 11 per cent last quarter after rising to 16 per cent during the announcement of the carbon tax in the March quarter.
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